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The Warning from History

On the morning of January 6, 2021, the world watched as a mob stormed the U.S. Capitol. It was a moment of reckoning—chaos unleashed in the heart of the world’s most celebrated democracy.

Some called it a rebellion, others an insurrection. But to an ancient Greek historian named Polybius, it would have been something else entirely: inevitable.

More than 2,000 years ago, Polybius introduced a concept that few remember today, but whose relevance has never been greater: Anakyklosis—the Cycle of Political Evolution. It’s the idea that all governments, no matter how just or noble, are doomed to fall into predictable patterns of corruption, decay, and rebirth. It’s a cycle we have seen time and again, from the fall of Rome to the rise of authoritarian populism in the 21st century.

And if history tells us anything, it’s that the cycle is turning once more in 2025.


The Cycle of Power: From Democracy to Mob Rule

Polybius laid out the six stages of government like a tragic script, one that civilizations unknowingly follow, again and again:

  1. Monarchy (Rule of One – Benevolent) – A strong, wise leader emerges to bring order to chaos.
  2. Tyranny (Rule of One – Corrupt) – Power corrupts, and the leader becomes despotic.
  3. Aristocracy (Rule of the Best – Benevolent) – The best and brightest take over, governing with wisdom.
  4. Oligarchy (Rule of the Few – Corrupt) – The elites grow greedy, consolidating power for themselves.
  5. Democracy (Rule of the Many – Benevolent) The people rise up, demanding a government that serves them.
  6. Ochlokratia (Mob Rule – Corrupt) – Democracy descends into chaos, manipulated by demagogues and misinformation, leading to collapse and the rise of a new monarchy.

Sound familiar? It should. Because right now, the world’s great democracies are teetering on the edge of ochlokratia—mob rule. The signs are all around us in 2025 and maybe earlier than that!


America, Rome, and the Dangers of Late-Stage Democracy

History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme. Consider the fall of the Roman Republic:

  • A democratic system once admired, where power was shared among elected officials.
  • A growing divide between the elite and the working class, fueling discontent.
  • The rise of populist leaders who promised to “fix the system” while eroding its foundations.
  • Political violence becoming normalized, as factions turned to force instead of debate.

By the time Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon in 49 BCE, Rome had already crossed a point of no return. Democracy had rotted from within, paving the way for empire.

Now, look around in 2025. The warning signs are eerily similar:

  • Rising wealth inequality—a handful of billionaires hold more wealth than entire nations, with AI-driven economies exacerbating disparities.
  • Populist strongmen winning elections by exploiting public disillusionment, now amplified by deepfake propaganda and AI-manipulated media.
  • A disinformation crisis, where truth is drowned in a sea of conspiracy theories, with major news organizations struggling to compete with viral AI-generated misinformation.
  • Governments increasingly paralyzed by polarization, unable to solve real problems, as social unrest escalates globally.
  • The rise of authoritarian tendencies, with leaders undermining democratic institutions under the guise of “protecting the people,” now armed with digital surveillance and AI-powered state control.

Like Rome before it, modern democracy is not dying from external threats. It is crumbling from within—now at an accelerated pace thanks to technology.


The Digital Age and the Acceleration of Ochlokratia

Polybius never could have predicted social media, but if he had, he would have seen it as the ultimate accelerator of political decay.

In 2025, the situation has worsened. AI-driven content manipulation, hyper-personalized propaganda, and algorithm-driven outrage cycles have turned democracy into a battleground of perception over reality. Deepfake videos, voice clones, and AI-generated political figures blur the line between truth and fiction. The digital public square, once seen as a beacon of democratic engagement, has become an ecosystem of rage-fueled disinformation, rewarding extremism over nuance, engagement over truth.

And so we find ourselves in the final stage of democracy—the moment where people, manipulated by demagogues, AI-driven propaganda, and digital algorithms, turn against the very system meant to protect them.


Can We Break the Cycle?

If the ancient Greeks were right, the natural next step is a return to authoritarian rule—a strongman rising from the ashes, promising to “fix” the broken system, but at the cost of freedom.

But history is not destiny. The cycle is a warning, not a prophecy.

Democracies do not fail overnight. They erode, piece by piece, as citizens grow complacent, as leaders exploit fear, as institutions weaken under the weight of corruption. And yet, history has also shown that the fate of a nation is not written in stone—it is written by those who refuse to let history repeat itself.

The solution does not lie in nostalgia for the past, but in rebuilding trust, strengthening institutions, and restoring civic engagement. It lies in resisting the allure of simple answers to complex problems. It lies in demanding accountability from leaders, media, and ourselves.

In 2025, it also means tackling the AI-driven erosion of democracy, ensuring that technology serves the people rather than manipulates them. We must regulate AI in politics, educate citizens on digital literacy, and push for transparent governance in an age where deception has never been easier.

Polybius gave us the diagnosis. The question now is: Will we choose a different ending?


We stand at a crossroads, just as Rome did, just as every great civilization has before us.

The forces of history are powerful, but they are not absolute.

As Martin Luther King, Jr1.,  once said, “The arc of the moral universe may bend toward justice, but it does not bend on its own.” We, the people, must be the ones to bend it.

Because democracy is not a given. It is a choice. And that choice is ours to make—before history that always tends to repeat itself makes it for us.

When Democracy Spoke for All

There was a time when democracy belonged to the people—not to wallets or ad budgets, but to voices and ideas.

It was messy. It was passionate. It was imperfect.
But it was ours.

Today, that promise feels further away.

What happens when the voice of a citizen is no longer measured by the strength of their argument but by the size of their wallet? What happens when democracy becomes a game of pay-to-play—when influence is bought, not earned? Well basically what we see all over our world.


The Cost of Being Heard

Here’s the truth:
In the 2024 U.S. elections, political ad spending shattered records—$10 billion spent to buy clicks, impressions, and algorithmic nudges.

And this isn’t just an American story. Between 2020 and 2023, political ad spending on Google / youtube network surged across Europe.

  • Germany spent 5.4 million euros on Google platforms.
  • Hungary spent 3 million euros.
  • The Netherlands followed with 2.6 million euros.

In comparison, top political spenders on Meta in the countries with the most campaign ad spending were more diverse. Three right-wing and far-right parties, like Belgium’s Vlaams Belang, topped the charts alongside Spain, Italy, and Sweden’s socialist and social-democratic parties. 

While digital platforms allow politicians to reach millions, they also create new risks. Low-cost, high-reach ads enable more voices—but at what cost to democracy?


The New Political Battlefield

Digital technologies have completely transformed political campaigning. Social media platforms like Facebook, YouTube, TikTok and Instagram and ads across the Google/Youtube network offer politicians massive reach at a fraction of the cost of traditional media.

But there’s a dark side to this transformation.

Big data and micro-targeting have turned political advertising into a tool for emotional manipulation and voter exploitation. Platforms collect personal data—preferences, interests, fears—and hand it over to campaigns. Malicious actors tailor messages to trigger specific emotions, often using disinformation to sway public opinion.

And the cost isn’t just to political debate. It’s to our freedom of opinion, our access to transparent information, and our trust in democracy itself.


Why Transparency Matters

The European Union has taken steps to address this and hopefully change things for the better. In February 2024, the European Parliament adopted new transparency rules for political advertising. These rules aim to:

  1. Ensure political ads are clearly labelled.
  2. Reveal who sponsored the ad, how much they paid, and why a user was targeted.
  3. Ban micro-targeting based on sensitive personal data—such as ethnicity, religion, or sexual orientation.

For the first time, sponsoring ads from outside the EU will also be banned in the three months leading up to elections.

Sandro Gozi, the MEP leading the effort, put it simply:

“Digital technologies make citizens more vulnerable
to disinformation and foreign interference. Now more than ever, it is crucial to safeguard our democratic and electoral processes. The rules adopted today play a pivotal role in helping citizens discern who is behind a political message and make an informed choice when they head to the polls. With the European elections approaching, we urge all major online platforms to start applying the new rules as soon as possible and ensure the digital space remains a safe place to exchange political ideas and opinions”

Transparency is a start—but it doesn’t erase the deeper problem: money still determines who gets heard and this will continue to apply.


The Divide Widens

The U.S. has yet to adopt similar measures, leaving its political advertising landscape wide open to manipulation and exploitation. While the EU attempts to protect voter trust, the U.S. continues to favor unregulated ad spending, allowing disinformation and algorithmic dominance to flourish unchecked.

This imbalance is growing, and with it, the gap between those who can afford to play—and those left behind.


When the Margins Rise

And yet, there’s hope.

In 2020, Stacey Abrams and her grassroots organization Fair Fight Action transformed voter turnout in Georgia. Through community organizing, digital outreach, and relentless advocacy, her team overcame systemic barriers to reach voters who had long been excluded from the political process.

Her success wasn’t powered by the biggest ad budget. It was fueled by purpose and the belief that democracy works best when everyone participates.

This story reminds us: Money matters, but passion and persistence can still punch through.


The Real Cost of Silence

If democracy becomes something you can buy, what happens to those who can’t afford it?

What happens to voters when they can’t trust the information they see?
What happens to elections when money doesn’t just buy ads—it buys influence?

The European Union’s steps toward transparency are progress. But the real question remains:

Who gets heard? Who gets silenced? And what future are we building when the price of political influence keeps rising?


In the end, it is all about what kind of democracy we want

One where the wealthiest voices dominate—or one where every citizen has a seat at the table?

What happens when the algorithms we trust to inform us are rigged to reward dollars/euros etc over discourse?

Democracy isn’t a product. It’s not a brand. It’s a promise. A promise that belongs to all of us—not just those who can afford to buy in.

The question is: Will we fight for that promise?

https://youtu.be/hzv7gCBHglg

Just how unscrupulous are international PR agencies that work on election campaigns? Using a fake identity, investigative journalist Peter Kreysler infiltrates their inner workings. Along with journalist Gesine Enwaldt, Kreysler documents the world of campaign strategists, from the inside. The documentary provides undercover insights into the unscrupulous methods of these well-paid opinion makers. These PR professionals work globally, on numerous national election campaigns. They use sophisticated digital methods to influence and manipulate unsuspecting citizens.

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the truth is out there